Superb episode, great insights. I really enjoyed it. One question: do u know someone from the lottery business as well, sb with the same level of knowledge and insights? I might send u a PM if I may, I work on some projects and would love to hear your opinion. Thanks and keep up great work.
Thanks for the interview, Isaac. I really enjoyed it. You have some excellent insights.
I have a question please: how do sports books know when someone is arbing ? Apart from bets in non standard amounts, wouldn't they have to have access to your accounts at other books to know for sure ? l can't figure out how they know.
Thanks so much! While I'm not a bookmaker and have never worked for one, my understanding is there are 3 ways. The first, as you've noted, is strange bet sizes (which is why if you're arbing you should probably round your bets to at least the nearest $5, ie $105 instead of $103.42 or whatever). The second is the market(s) being bet on: often arbs occur in minor/niche markets, which will arouse more suspicion than major markets. The third and most obvious is line movement. For an arb to occur, at least 1 of the bets has to be at an off market price (or else you would be paying the standard vig). This means that in general, for at least 1/2 of your arb bets the odds will move in your favor, and sportsbooks track that. So in that scenario they might not know that you're arbing, but they will know that you're picking off bad lines– because after you bet the odds often move in your favor– and limit you just like they would someone who was making standard +EV wagers. Hope that's helpful!
Thanks for the interview. Thoroughly enjoyed your perspective on the reality of the sports betting business. The interview was spot on. Particularly the problem of a sports gambler searching for positive expected value versus the operator's often unfounded desire to completely remove risk. That friction can't continue over the long term.
Hi Isaac,
Superb episode, great insights. I really enjoyed it. One question: do u know someone from the lottery business as well, sb with the same level of knowledge and insights? I might send u a PM if I may, I work on some projects and would love to hear your opinion. Thanks and keep up great work.
Lukas
Thanks so much! DM me we can chat a bit more.
Thanks for the interview, Isaac. I really enjoyed it. You have some excellent insights.
I have a question please: how do sports books know when someone is arbing ? Apart from bets in non standard amounts, wouldn't they have to have access to your accounts at other books to know for sure ? l can't figure out how they know.
Thanks a lot again :-)
Thanks so much! While I'm not a bookmaker and have never worked for one, my understanding is there are 3 ways. The first, as you've noted, is strange bet sizes (which is why if you're arbing you should probably round your bets to at least the nearest $5, ie $105 instead of $103.42 or whatever). The second is the market(s) being bet on: often arbs occur in minor/niche markets, which will arouse more suspicion than major markets. The third and most obvious is line movement. For an arb to occur, at least 1 of the bets has to be at an off market price (or else you would be paying the standard vig). This means that in general, for at least 1/2 of your arb bets the odds will move in your favor, and sportsbooks track that. So in that scenario they might not know that you're arbing, but they will know that you're picking off bad lines– because after you bet the odds often move in your favor– and limit you just like they would someone who was making standard +EV wagers. Hope that's helpful!
Thanks for the interview. Thoroughly enjoyed your perspective on the reality of the sports betting business. The interview was spot on. Particularly the problem of a sports gambler searching for positive expected value versus the operator's often unfounded desire to completely remove risk. That friction can't continue over the long term.
Thanks, glad you enjoyed it!